This time is NOT different

Kenneth Rogoff, één van de weinigen die de bankencrisis zag aankomen en met “this time is different” een fantastisch boek schreef dat verplichte literatuur zou moeten zijn voor onze politici, verwacht een resem sovereign defaults in de komende jaren.

Following banking crises, “we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years,” Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo yesterday. “I predict we will again.”
The U.S. is likely to tighten monetary policy before cutting government spending, sending “shockwaves” through financial markets, Rogoff said in an interview after the speech. Fiscal policy won’t be curbed until soaring bond yields trigger “very painful” tax increases and spending cuts, he said.