Nouriel Roubini ziet het somber in, hij ziet een perfecte globale storm opduiken:
“In the east, China, its growth model unsustainable, could be underwater by 2013, as its investment bust continues and reforms intended to boost consumption are too little too late. A new Chinese leadership must accelerate structural reforms to reduce national savings and increase consumption’s share of GDP”
The economic slowdown in the US, the Eurozone, and China already implies a massive drag on growth in other emerging markets, owing to their trade and financial links with the US and the European Union.
Finally, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013. The current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons.